Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.
During that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position & Settled Issues
Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on Europe
However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.
And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains measured in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from European rules across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.
An Alarming Strategy and Strategic Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter and The Echo of 2018
All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.
Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is part of a clutch of senior ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Danger & A Wise Reminder
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had for him seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.
